The Taliban's Last Stand
In a conversation with Gen. David Petraeus last week, the Commander of the International Security and Assistance Force mentioned that overtures for peace had recently been made by Taliban leaders hiding in Pakistan. While he stressed that these talks are "embryonic," he also noted that it indicates a certain level of "pressure" on the Taliban, who have been finding it harder and harder to hide in the federally administrated tribal areas along Pakistan's border with Afghanistan.
That's because U.S. predator drones have been hitting their hideouts hard for more than two years now. When the Taliban tries to organize in Afghanistan, they are soundly beaten by U.S. forces with impressive regularity.
Add to that the "local help" being employed by U.S. agencies along the border, which Bob Woodward recently referred to as "a 3,000-man secret army funded by the CIA." In reality, this "secret army" is nothing more than border tribes who have been more or less hired to do what the government of Pakistan has heretofore been unwilling - or unable to do.
These border tribes move freely in and out of Pakistan and have been constantly at war with one another almost since the dawn of time. What the U.S. military and other agencies have done is form alliances with these tribes by providing medical and humanitarian supplies to them in exchange for intelligence and sometimes direct action on the side of the Pakistan border where U.S. forces cannot go - yet.
These tribes have been helpful in taking the war to the Taliban wherever they hide. But now, the Taliban appears to have found the soft underbelly of ISAF - the supply train.
The U.S. and its allies cannot function in Afghanistan without supplies - the sheer scale of the supply train is mind boggling. Hundreds of trucks make the trip from Pakistani ports to the border daily, carrying everything from food to fuel oil. And attacks on these convoys in Pakistan are becoming almost a daily occurrence.
There are undoubtedly high-level talks happening as we speak between U.S. military generals and the Pakistani government. It isn't difficult to imagine how this might pan out. Either the Pak army will do something to better safeguard these convoys, or ISAF will.
It can't afford not to - These attacks unbelievably expensive to the United States taxpayer. Tuesday's attack near Peshawar which saw militants destroy 20 tanker trucks full of fuel was worth approximately $160 million, assuming each truck held around 20,000 gallons.
More importantly, the American fighting man and his allies desperately need the fuel and supplies that come in through Pakistan in order to win the war in Afghanistan. I have seen some great progress here on this trip, which gives me hope that we really can win it. But without supplies, we and the Afghans lose, and the Taliban know it.
Look for more attacks of this kind in the coming weeks as the insurgents pull out all the stops to try and turn the tide which is, at least for the moment, moving our way.