WASHINGTON – As many political experts predict a "blue wave" in November, one top Washington reporter says not so fast, telling CBN News he thinks it's actually "likely" Republicans will hold on to control of the House of Representatives.
Jonathan Swan, a national political reporter for Axios, tells CBN News, "The House is very much in play."
"I think you would be foolish to make a confident prediction one way or the other," he explained. "I think it's very likely that Republicans actually hang on to the House."
Swan acknowledged that history is on the Democrats' side since the president's party tends to lose congressional seats in a midterm election – but he believes this time could be different given the booming economy that Republicans can tout.
"I don't think it's a done deal by any stretch because the economy is doing so well, but Democrats like their chances," Swan said.
Swan is known for his political "scoops" and has been the first to report on several major news stories including President Trump's decision to recognize Jerusalem as Israel's capital and Trump's call to end Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA).
Jenna Browder: "Everybody’s talking about a “blue wave” this fall. From your reporting, how likely do you think that is and what, if anything, can Republicans do to blunt it?"
Jonathan Swan: "Well it's as likely as it's not. So, the Cook Political Report, which I respect a lot – Charlie Cook is a very respected, non-partisan forecaster – their calculations are that if Republicans have sort of a plus-six advantage heading into the midterms, that's a pretty dangerous place for them to be. And we've been oscillating back and forth in that range. So, the House is very much in play. That's just a baseline. The Republicans have a great economy which is very much to their advantage but history would tell you that their chances are not great because you have the president who is of the same party that controls both the House and the Senate. If you just look at history, there tends to be a pretty major loss of seats in the House. So, I think you would be foolish to make a confident prediction one way or the other. I think it's very likely that Republicans actually hang on to the House. I don't think it's a done deal by any stretch because the economy is doing so well, but Democrats like their chances."