ISIS is not Finished, Prepare for New Conflict

George Thomas
06-30-2017

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Watch CBN News reporters George Thomas, Gary Lane and Chris Mitchell discuss how a new conflict threatens the Middle East after ISIS

A day after a top Iraqi general declared "their fictitious state" had fallen, experts are warning ISIS could still pose a significant security threat in Syria, Iraq and the broader Middle East.

Researchers with the Combating Terrorism Center at West Point found that in 16 cities "liberated" by Iraqi forces, ISIS still managed to carry out sizeable terror attacks.

"From each city's date of liberation from the Islamic State until April 2017, the Islamic State reported that it carried out 1,468 separate attacks in these 16 cities," the 20-page report noted.

The authors of the report say unless U.S. and coalition forces put in place a viable plan to stabilize the region after ISIS, the old territorial and religious conflicts that have pitted Sunni and Shia groups against each other, could flare into another round of violence, leading to the next generation of ISIS.

"The volume of military operations in these cities provides evidence for the idea that the Islamic State, once relegated in Iraq to guerilla warfare from 2003-2011, may be returning to this form of existence in Iraq and Syria," authors Daniel Milton and Muhammad al-Ubaydi warned.

On Friday, Iraqi troops pushed deeper into the Old City of Mosul as they prepare for what is expected to be the final days of the battle for the country's second largest city.

"What's left is a few areas and pockets for the terrorist group in an area of no more than one square kilometer, surrounded by our troops," said Yahya Rasool, Iraqi's military spokesman.

A top priority for Iraq's government now is trying to save the civilians still trapped under ISIS occupation.

"There are 50,000 civilians in the city, but they can't leave easily because {ISIS}  is using them as human shields," said Lieutenant General Sami Al Aridi. "We are using social media and calling civilians, urging them to flee."

Some residents are too afraid to leave the besieged city for fear that their homes and possessions will be stolen or destroyed by terrorists.

Mohamed Ahmad Thalij is among those who stayed back regardless of the challenges and security threats.

"It"s so dangerous here, there was heavy fighting here. It's not safe here, there is no clean water," said Mohamed Ahmad Thalij, resident in Mosul.

Others like Ali Jarjis Mahmoud, who made the frightening escape through the safe corridor, fled with only the clothes he was wearing.

"Civilians have no food, no clean water, and {ISIS} is hoarding all the good food," said Mahmoud.

Authors Milton and al-Ubaydi say giving folks like Mahmoud and Thalij the assurance that what comes after ISIS will be a time of peaceful transition is critical.

"Pushing the Islamic State out as the formal governing party in a territory is not a sufficient development when it comes to ending the group's ability to enact violence against individuals in Iraq and Syria," the authors said.

The reality is rebuilding cities once held by ISIS will be a costly and painstaking.

In places like Mosul, where the airport, rail lines and major highways, were all destroyed in the war, billions of dollars are needed to rebuild them. Resources that Iraq's struggling economy doesn't have nor can afford.

"After Mosul is fully liberated, we need a working plan to restore things to the way they were before 2014 when Islamic State took over," Noureldin Qablan, an economist, told Reuters.

As ISIS continues to lose ground in Iraq and Syria, some warn that a new battle is brewing to fill the vacuum left by the terror group.

"So what's going on right now in Syria is the maneuvering," said political analyst Charles Krauthammer.

Krauthammer told Fox News that Iran's objective, which along with Russia, has backed Syria's Bashar al-Assad's regime, "is to inherit the territory of ISIS, which gives them control of the entire northern part of the Middle East, from Iran, through Iraq, through Syria, to the Mediterranean."

"The Persians have not had that in 2,000 years, and it is within their grasp," Krauthammer added.

Krauthammer noted that the Russians, the Iranians and Syrians are all on the same side.

"And the maneuver is to make sure that they get the territory that ISIS loses," Krauthammer said. "Our interest {America} is to make sure that that doesn't happen. That's why we attacked the forces of Assad, who are hitting our allies on the ground, who are the Kurds, and there are these Syrian rebels, who together with the Kurds, are closing in on Raqqah."

One U.S. general says what's unfolding in the region could potentially put the United States on a collision course with the Russians, Iranians and Syrians.

"When ISIS goes away, that's the real issue," Brig. Gen. Charles Corcoran, commander of the 380th Air Expeditionary Wing, told Military.com.

Corcoran says, "It's pretty clear that at some point...we're going to have state-on-state" forces fighting. "ISIS is a sideshow...but what happens when the {other} two meet?"

Krauthammer and others say America has to be prepared for this evolving battlefield in Syria and Iraq.

"As ISIS disappears off the map this tolerance that Shia Iranian-supported groups and American-supported groups have shown for each other - there is a danger that will that will go away," said Ilan Goldenberg, a former State Department and defense official. "You can see it all going haywire pretty quickly."

If all this isn't enough to make your head spin, Kurdish president Masoud Barzani, wants to carve out his own territory for an independent Kurdistan.

"We have been waiting 14 years for it - we can't wait anymore," Barzani said in an interview with France 24.

Earlier this month, Iraqi Kurds called for a vote on September 25 to decide whether to break away from the rest of Iraq and form their own nation.

"If we wait and wait to solve all of the issues beforehand, and if we wait until the region is stabilized, we're probably going to be waiting a long time," Barzani said. "And we would probably never be able to actually set a date for this referendum. Furthermore, this is for the good of our people and also for the stability of our region."

While the referendum isn't the same as a declaration of independence, the vote simply asks Kurds if they want their own state.

"After a century of trying, it is time to recognize that the forced inclusion of the Kurds in Iraq has not worked for us or for the Iraqis," Barzani wrote in an editorial. "We ask that the United States and the international community respect the democratic decision of Kurdistan's people."

"In the long run, both Iraq and Kurdistan will be better off," the Kurdish president added.

Buckle up! The Middle East cauldron of chaos and uncertainty is about to get a lot messier than before.

 

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About The Author

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George
Thomas

Born in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, and of Indian descent, CBN News’ Senior International Correspondent and Co-Anchor, George Thomas, has been traveling the globe for more than 20 years, finding the stories of people, conflicts, and issues that must be told. He has reported from more than 100 countries and has had a front-row seat to numerous global events of our day. George’s stories of faith, struggle, and hope combine the expertise of a seasoned journalist with the inspiration of a deep calling to tell the stories of the people behind the news. “I’ve always liked discovering & exploring new
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