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Christian Living

chinaconnection 03/19/08

Tibet Protests: What's at Stake?

It seems like every update regarding Tibet resonates with the same type of ominous tone.  Casualties keep rising, violence keeps spreading, and the threat of Olympic boycotts grow louder and louder. 

China still has about 5 months to rebrand itself as a stable, prosperous and harmonious Olympic host country, but these Tibetan protests present very salient cracks in China's generally cool facade.

As violence continues, a clear and satisfactory  resolution seems to be an unattainable goal for all parties involved.  Here's what some of the key players have to gain/lose as the protests continue:

Olympics: The Olympics remain one of the greatest sources of pride for China, but also one of their greatest vulnerabilities.  The cries demanding Olympic boycotts have become increasingly loud over the past week, despite the efforts of international organizers to keep things under control.

Human rights groups have changed their cries from just criticizing China's policies, to urging world leaders to avoid the Opening Ceremonies in protest.  Even though it's doubtful that most major world leaders will change their Olympic plans, the activists' voices are definitely getting louder, and the unrest in Tibet doesn't seem to improve Olympic goodwill.

Beijing Government: The Beijing government probably has more to lose than any of the other players, since their reputation is on the line.   Even though, according to the Chinese Embassy, the police in Tibet acted with "great restraint" and used "no lethal weapons," much of the world doesn't view the situation through this lens. 

The violence has already calmed down, but at what price?  Reports of Chinese troops patrolling the streets arresting Tibetans remain, and media in Tibet has been severely restricted.  No matter what, the Chinese government can't escape from this debaucle unharmed, but with the Olympic Torch relay soon making its way through Tibet, there's a shot at redeeming their national reputation.    

Dalai Lama: The exiled leader of Tibetan Buddhists has had his reputation smeared by Chinese leaders, which ironically has probably made him even more popular with his sympathizers.  He has renounced the violence, and says "if things become completely out of control then my only option is to resign." 

If resignation isn't a strong enough message, he's said Chinese leaders "can examine my pulse, my urine, my stool, everything" to determine that he has not been plotting these protests.

Chinese offiicials aren't completely confident in the Dalai Lama's innocence, calling him "a wolf in monk's robes," but if the Dalai Lama does resign, it would be an extreme international embarrassment for China.  This type of action would only fuel Tibetan sympathies worldwide and potentially embolden Tibetans to fight harder.

Tibetan Residents: Tibetan Buddhists are generally known for their peace-loving culture, but the past week has been anything but.  Pent up frustration over the past several decades has translated into violence and a mob mentality.  Though the violence of these protests goes against the Dalai Lama's wishes, now that the proverbial genie is out of the bottle, it's difficult to know whether or not Chinese troops can shove it back in. 

Ethnic Chinese living in Tibet have borne the brunt of the protesters' rage, and according to the Chinese government, about 300 sites have burned down.  Many Chinese have been victimized by mob violence, and some to the point of death.  Chinese police have provided some relief for ethnic Chinese in Tibet, but even after this storm has passed, it will be a difficult task to return to a "normal" existence with their Tibetan neighbors. 

Tibet's Economy: The impact of these protests on Tibet's economy also remains uncertain.  The Chinese government has made significant economic investments in Tibet, including a high-speed train from Beijing to Lhasa, and significant infrastructure improvements. 

Political unrest in Tibet could scare away tourists and potential investors, which could take a toll on Tibet's economy.  On the other hand, the historically isolationist Tibetans might prefer the privacy.

Western China: While much of the violence within Tibet has stopped, several people in Western provinces still haven't gotten the memo.  As you can see from the video, many ethnic Tibetans living in neighboring provinces have been lashing out against Chinese authorities, but in time, this should also calm down.  

Even though the situation might soon be under control, restoring political stability and confidence in these areas remains a daunting task.  The ingredients are all in place for something dramatic, but it's a question of when it will start cooking.

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