I had a chance to talk to political strategist Ralph Reed today. His analysis of this crazy presidential race is below. Bottom line: he thinks Romney and Huckabee have been treated poorly by the media because of their faith.
Ralph Reed on media's treatment of Romney and Huckabee:
I think he has been treated very shabbily. To put Romney on the cover with the headline, "Being the Mormon President" is just not appropriate.
Brody: Are you talking about the media in general?
Reed: I'm talking about the media in general. I think Romney has been treated very shabbily. I think Huckabee has been treated very shabbily. For a candidate to be asked whether he thinks Romney is a Christian or not, that's a doctrinal question. It is irrelevant as to his ability to serve as President and it's a religious test being applied to both Romney and Huckabee simultaneously.
Huckabee got asked whether or not he agreed with his church's doctrine on marriage. Look, Mike is a very gifted speaker and he hit it out of the park, but we're beginning to apply theological litmus tests to candidates in a way that is antithetical to the Constitution, to the views of the framers and to what has made America great.
Among many, hardly all, but many opinion elites and many reporters, I think there is a discomfort about strongly held seriously considered faith, about whether or not it might be empowered or undemocratic or exclusionary rather than inclusionary.
To be honest, David, it sells newspapers. I've had journalists tell me that. You know, if we do religion coverage, it sells better. I think there are two things that sell in journalism: sex and religion.
Ralph Reed on Huckabee's chances in South Carolina:
I think Huckabee's challenge is clearly going to be two fold. Number one: what is the Evangelical turnout going to be? If it goes off the charts in South Carolina in such records like we've never seen like what it did in Iowa then Huckabee can win this primary. Will it happen? I don't know.
In 2000, Evangelical turnout as I recall was about 45 percent. I think it needs to be north of that for Huckabee. I think he needs it to be higher than that. Somewhere between there and the 60 percent that he did in Iowa. I think 60 percent is probably unrealistic, but north of 50 percent is not. The second challenge for Huckabee is winning votes outside of that Evangelical vote stuff. He needs to have appeal beyond them.
Ralph Reed on McCain's chances in South Carolina:
I think McCain has a couple challenges. I think the first challenge is can he over perform among conservative primary voters?
So far if we look at the primary results, while McCain has done well among more moderate and liberal Republicans and done well among Independents, he has underperformed among conservatives. And conservative voters are going to be between 50 and 60 percent of the vote. If he does significantly better among those voters than he did in Michigan and New Hampshire, he's got a shot to win this primary.
The second thing for McCain is Independent turnout. If the Independent turnout is really high, and if he does as well among that group as he's being doing elsewhere, he's got a real shot at winning this primary.