Donald Trump’s Silent Majority was extremely vocal Tuesday night in New Hampshire. As a matter of fact they were so loud that the whole country heard them loud and clear. That’s what happens when you trounce the field by double digits.
For the first time, Trump took his “huge fabulous poll numbers” and made them count at the ballot box. What Trump’s victory shows is that the billionaire’s populist "angry at politicians” message resonates with voters who are both moderate and dissatisfied with the Republican Party. There are plenty of them up in New Hampshire. Now Trump needs to be able to take that momentum and be able to translate it to states like South Carolina that lean more conservative and more evangelical. Iowa was similar in that regard and Trump did well. But he’ll need to somehow get the ground game going full tilt in South Carolina because Ted Cruz’s team is a machine and they proved it in Iowa.
Speaking of Cruz, it was an excellent night for him. His strong top tier finish in New Hampshire needs to be put in perspective. Strong evangelical candidates typically don’t play well in the more moderate libertarian New Hampshire. But Cruz has depth. He not only has evangelical ‘street cred’ but he also has libertarian ‘street cred’ since he is, after all, a constitutionalist at heart. In other words, he can play in both camps and that’s a major plus. He’s not a one-trick pony. He’s more like a stallion built for the long haul and in New Hampshire Tuesday night he exceeded expectations. Let’s also remember, he had a very light financial footprint in the state. He spent less than $600,000 compared to Jeb Bush and his Super PAC that spent about $36 million. That’s called bang for your buck. Cruz now heads to South Carolina where his conservative Christian message will play well with the myriad of evangelicals in the Palmetto State. He’s positioned very nicely.
As for John Kasich, he finished second and he’s downright giddy about it. Let’s be clear about a few things regarding Kasich. The guy gets results. You can’t argue with that. If voters are looking for a solutions-oriented candidate, Kasich is positioned as that guy. But here’s the problem for the Ohio governor. He’s not channeling the anger of the Republican electorate. Trump is. Cruz is. Kasich is not. Plus, while Kasich had a strong showing in the Granite State, he pretty much set up camp here for a couple months so coming in second isn’t that huge of a surprise. But where does he go from here? He’ll get a bit of a bounce out of New Hampshire, but Trump and Cruz are positioned much better in the upcoming South Carolina and SEC primaries. It begs the question: when and where does Kasich win a state? Michigan? That’s March 8. That may be too late. A lot depends on what happens to Bush and Marco Rubio between now and then.
So let’s discuss both Bush and Rubio. For Jeb Bush, the New Hampshire results were definitely better than Iowa, but he spent an awful lot of time and money in New Hampshire to be placing in the middle of the pack in this state. Bush’s best hope is that he outperforms Kasich and Rubio in South Carolina and finally becomes the GOP establishment choice. That would leave him, Cruz and Trump. It’s a long shot but it’s his only shot. As for Rubio, the debate killed him. He even admitted it Tuesday night. The results put Rubio in a tough spot heading into South Carolina. He’s not likely to win or even come in second so he’s got to be hoping for third place (again) and outpace Kasich and Bush. This whole GOP establishment lane needs to clear up quickly. If it doesn’t, Cruz or Trump will have a much clearer path and it may simply be too late for any final GOP establishment candidate to catch either one of them purely from a momentum standpoint.
Lastly, a quick word about South Carolina. Folks, this is going to get downright nasty. South Carolina has a reputation for dirty politics and that reputation is about to grow considerably. Trump and Cruz are going to be in an outright war. There are potential pitfalls for both of them. For Trump, he’ll need to be his outrageous bold self without going over the line into vulgarity and over the top meanness. He needs to be careful. If he’s looking to attract evangelical voters, they won’t appreciate it even if they like him. He could lose key voters. For Cruz, he’s always talked about not getting into a name-calling, mud-wrestling match with Trump. He’s always said he won’t make it personal, but Trump will attack and it will be personal. How Cruz reacts will test his character and his patience.