This was bound to happen. President Trump vs. The House Freedom Caucus. It didn’t even take 100 days. 69 to be exact.
Let’s boil it down to this: Donald Trump is 65% conservative (roughly). The House Freedom Caucus is 99.9% conservative (on a bad day). I’m not great at math but that means we’ve got a 35% gap between them. Who wins? Who gives? There’s an argument to be made on both sides. Let’s lay it out there and then come to a final analytical conclusion.
The Argument in Favor of President Trump: It’s pretty simple. He won the General Election and with that comes the ultimate prize of at least some form of a mandate from his own party, even if he’s not the poster boy for republicanism. He ran as a political outsider who made no secret about the fact that he wasn’t going to be your typical republican. Voters liked that. Yes, he went around saying that he was going to repeal and replace Obamacare and technically this bill DOES repeal SOME of it and replaces SOME of it. It’s not the whole enchilada but in fairness, did we really think a President Trump was going to be Mr. “Rock-Ribbed Conservative” on this? Ted Cruz was not elected president. If that had taken place, the Freedom Caucus would have a bill closer to their liking. But he wasn’t and they don’t. Stuff happens. In essence, Trump is giving the Freedom Caucus an improvement over Obamacare. Is it perfect? No. But if Obamacare is broccoli, this GOP Healthcare bill may still have some broccoli in it but at least it’s got some melted cheese and bacon on top. It’s a little tastier.
The Argument in Favor of the House Freedom Caucus: It’s pretty simple here too. These guys are not your typical politicians just looking to broker a deal so they can have it on their political resume. They truly want to see policy that tangibly works and they have no desire to sacrifice their principles even if it cost them politically. They are “true believers” in conservatism to the point where if they see a bad bill they just can’t vote for it in good conscience. They really want to repeal ALL of Obamacare and replace it with a better option. It’s noble, even if it’s not entirely practical based on the political split within the GOP.
So what’s the final conclusion? It’s a tough call but the answer may lie in taking the long-term view. If the House Freedom Caucus scuttles the president on healthcare, two things may very well happen. Trump will look elsewhere for votes (democrats) and they would get a bill that's far worse than this one. Additionally, and even more importantly, the Freedom Caucus would weaken the president’s agenda going forward on other important issues too. If that happens, then you have an ineffective and most likely one-term president. The fight over healthcare isn’t just about healthcare. It’s about whether this president will get cooperation from his own party so he can move his full populist agenda forward. The Freedom Caucus may have to bite the bullet on healthcare so they can get a few other agenda items (immigration, tax reform) through where they see more eye-to-eye with the president.
I understand Freedom Caucus members will have to swallow hard on healthcare and it’s not a perfect bill, not even close but what’s the alternative? A weakened president and Obamacare? Let’s also remember something that should not be lost on anyone: Trump’s victory changed the Republican Party. It’s NOT a constitutional conservative party. I know Freedom Caucus members want it to be and are fighting for those principles. That’s great. But ultimately Trump won by bringing new voters (Independents, democrats and disenchanted republicans) into the party and those voters don’t require GOP orthodoxy. That’s something the Freedom Caucus needs to be mindful of. It's the harsh political reality for Freedom Caucus members now that Donald Trump is the top republican.
Circling back to our conservative figures at the top; if Trump is 65% conservative and the Freedom Caucus is at 99.9%, it seems that it’s the Freedom Caucus that needs to move more into the 75% range. President Trump needs to come up a little too but not as much. He has the mandate and that means something. Can they work it out? I have no clue. In the meantime, I’m going to grab some popcorn and watch the show. Enjoy!