The Trump Factor in Indiana: Will He Help or Hurt GOP Efforts to Take a Senate Seat from Dems?

The midterm elections are just about a week away now, and Indiana's Senate race now looks like a statistical tie.  

Incumbent Democrat Sen. Joe Donnelly is defending his seat against Republican challenger Mike Braun. Despite the contest being 500 miles away from the White House, all roads lead back to President Trump. 

No matter which election you're talking about, the Trump administration is on the ballot in these midterms. Braun says, for him, that's a good thing. 

The businessman is hoping Trump's appeal to conservative Hoosiers and his own similar plea to blue-collar workers will carry him to victory against Donnelly. 

"The system needed to be shaken, that's why Donald Trump was elected. People on the blue-collar side had given up that people were thinking of them anymore," Braun told CBN News. 

He says his experience tackling issues like health care within his company surprises some voters. 

"They got surprised that I was actually a business guy that took on health care, which I think is by far the biggest issue across the country: How do we start controlling cost, cover preexisting conditions and no cap on coverage?" he said, admitting Republicans initially had no real replacement for the Affordable Care Act.
 
He's hoping to change all of that with ideas of his own. Braun says he is also against the idea of lifelong politicians, committing to serving only two terms if elected. 

However, as with other big races across the country, aligning with President Trump is a roll of the dice. Even though he won the state "bigly," Indiana is multifaceted and not everyone is ready to welcome a Trump-esque candidate. 

In Marion County, Indiana, for example, Trump was handily defeated by Hillary Clinton in 2016. And "Mike Pence Must Go" signs still litter the yards of some angry voters. 

But according to an Indianapolis Business Journal poll, Donnelly and Braun are polling neck and neck.

Other polls have Braun pulling away from the incumbent. 

But taking a deeper look, while Braun has gained ground since the Kavanaugh confirmation hearings, Donnelly dominates with two groups: young people and women.

Donnelly often touts his independent streak – he voted in favor of Judge Neil Gorsuch but against Brett Kavanaugh. 

"I voted against Judge Kavanaugh because of concerns about his impartiality and concerns about his judicial temperament," Donnelly said during a recent debate.   

That last vote could make the difference for a senator trying to thread the needle by keeping the Democrat vote and wooing moderate women, who aren't so happy with the president. 

"In a midterm, they can't vote against the president because he's not on the ballot, so they are taking it out on some Republican candidates. But that's just one slice of the electorate. The dirty secret about close races is that everyone matters," said Nathan Gonzales, editor of Inside Elections.

And he's right. A Republican source in Indiana tells CBN News that same decision to vote against Kavanaugh re-energized conservatives to get out and push on the issue of judges and the Supreme Court. 

"I know in our own state that really galvanized a lot of folks that may have been resting on the laurels of the Trump campaign," said Braun. 

Donnelly defends his vote against Kavanaugh and says unlike most of Washington, he has the ability to work with the president and against him when necessary. "Sixty-two percent of the time, I voted with President Trump," he said. 

"Mike was for Judge Kavanaugh on the first day. If Trump said 'let's put up Bugs Bunny,' Mike would've said he should be on the court," Donnelly claimed during the debate. 

CBN News requested an interview with Donnelly, but his office said he was unavailable. 

Braun says Donnelly's moderate, independent talk is just that…all talk. "All of this is being done in an election year. He voted against tax reform, voted for Obamacare as a congressman, and voted against its repeal," Braun said. 

The Jasper, Indiana native says like most of the people where he comes from, what you see is what you get, even down to the blue button-down he wore in the last debate.  

"I decided not to put on the suit coat and the tie that evening because I hadn't worn one in 37 years. Anybody from where I grew up and came from would've said 'Mike looks like he's different,'" he said. 

Both candidates are breaking out the big guns. Vice President Mike Pence hit the trail on behalf of Braun, while former Vice President Joe Biden stumped for Donnelly. Time will tell which message and messengers resonate most with Hoosier voters.