5 GOP Senators Calling It Quits Next Year: Could That Kill Republican Hopes of Taking Back the Senate?

Another Republican senator says he won't be running for re-election next year. Sen. Roy Blunt of Missouri is the fifth GOP senator to say he won't be coming back.

Blunt, who turned 71 in January, was widely expected to seek a third term in 2022. Before election to the Senate, he served seven terms in the U.S. House. He also served two terms as Missouri's secretary of state from 1985 to 1993.

Blunt, speaking at a Monday afternoon news conference in Springfield, Missouri, said the Capitol insurrection on Jan. 6 was not a factor in his decision. He also said he was confident he would have won a third Senate term.

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"I felt good about getting elected," he said. "What I felt less good about whether I wanted to go 26 years in the Congress or 32 years in the Congress and eliminate the other things I might get a chance to do when I leave the Congress."

Although some political analysts say this could mean bad news for the Republican Party's attempts to gain control of the Senate in the next election, Blunt doesn't see it that way. 

"I think 2022 will be a great year in the country and I think it will be a fine year in this Senate race," the senator told reporters. "The Republican Party will be just fine."

Based on history, Republicans have a reason for optimism for regaining control of the 50-50 Senate. The party that does not hold the White House generally gains seats in mid-term congressional elections. However, Republicans will be defending 20 seats and Democrats just 14 in next year's election.

The other GOP senators who have announced their retirement include Pat Toomey of Pennsylvania, Rob Portman of Ohio, Richard Shelby of Alabama, and Richard Burr of North Carolina.  Two other Republicans — Sens. Charles Grassley of Iowa and Ron Johnson of Wisconsin — have not yet said whether they plan to seek reelection.

Of the five announced retirees so far, four are age 65 or older and all have been in Congress for a decade or more. Ohio's Portman said he had wearied of the intense polarization of today's politics, but none of the others publicly suggested the political atmosphere contributed to their decisions.

Blunt ranks as number 4 in Senate Republican leadership. Political analysts wonder if this could set up contested primaries highlighting divisions between the far-right, and the old guard of the "Grand Old Party". 

Washington University political scientist Steven Smith expects a "scramble" for Blunt's Senate job.

"It looks like a seat that Republicans can have for the asking," Smith said. "My guess is there will be few moderates running for the seat because winning a primary in Missouri means you need to be quite conservative."

Lt. Gov. Mike Kehoe in a Monday statement hinted that he's thinking about running for Blunt's seat.

Other possible Republican candidates include former Gov. Eric Greitens, who resigned amid fallout from a sex scandal and ethics investigations in 2018.

"Many Republicans are going to take a serious look at this race," longtime Missouri GOP political operative John Hancock said. "It's an extremely important seat in the U.S. Senate. Control of the U.S. Senate is on the ballot in 2022."

As for Democrats, their aspirations of a comeback have been so far muted in The Show-Me State.  After former Democratic U.S. Sen. Claire McCaskill lost her seat to Hawley in 2018, there's only one statewide elected Democrat remaining in office: Auditor Nicole Galloway. McCaskill has already opted out of running again.

But Democrats still remain hopeful. 

"Senate Republicans have a retirement problem," Christie Roberts, executive director of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, said in a statement. "They're facing a growing list of defensive liabilities that shows even Republican incumbents don't like their chances in 2022."

Meanwhile, Blunt offered some sage advice for potential candidates of either party: Lose the my-way-or-the-highway philosophy.

"I think the country in the last decade or so has sort of fallen off the edge of too many politicians saying, 'If you vote for me I'll never compromise on anything,'" Blunt said. "That's a philosophy that particularly does not work in a democracy. We see too much of it in our politics today at all levels."