Florida's Swing Demographic Could Decide The Presidential Race

KISSIMMEE, Fla. -- Puerto Ricans in Florida, the nation's most populous swing state, may cast a decisive vote in the 2016 presidential race.

Political analysts say the rapidly growing population in central Florida could prove to be the swing demographic in the quintessential swing state.

The 'Fastest-Growing' Voters

Right now, Puerto Ricans are the fastest-growing group of voters in Florida's contested I-4 corridor.  With mounting debt and economic problems in Puerto Rico, the Puerto Rico Federal Affairs Administration estimates that about 1,000 Puerto Rican families relocate to Florida every month.

Esteban Garces is the Florida State Director for Mi Familia Vota, a national non-profit organization that promotes Latino civic engagement and social justice issues.

CBN News caught up with him at Osceola High School in Kissimmee, also known as "mini-Puerto Rico."  Garces and other staff met with student leaders in a classroom, teaching them how to register other students to vote.

The Power of Their Vote

Garces believes Puerto Rican voters could determine who occupies the White House in 2017.  "They will determine how central Florida goes and the reason that's important is central Florida will determine how Florida goes and Florida will determine how the rest of the nation goes," said Garces.

The Libre Initiative is another non-profit national organization pursuing Puerto Rican voters as it focuses on Latino civic engagement and promoting conservative economic principles. 

CBN News followed its staff recently as they wound their way through Buenaventura Lakes, a working class Kissimmee neighborhood.  

Libre workers chatted with residents about free market principles and community services like English classes and business workshops for budding entrepreneurs.
   
David Velazquez, the Deputy Florida State Director for Libre, told CBN News that he's seeing a big push to register Puerto Ricans to vote.  As U.S. citizens, they're eligible to register the moment they arrive.  

"Everyone wants the Puerto Rican vote," he said "because it's a whole new set of voters that are moving in."  

Changing Demographic Could Mean More Independent Voters

Garces projects that Mi Familia will register 15,000 Puerto Rican voters by the end of the year.  It's indicative of the rapidly changing Latino vote in Florida.  

In recent years, Cubans, who traditionally have voted Republican, have dropped in numbers and Puerto Ricans have grown.

That means Puerto Ricans could have more influence than ever in determining the Latino vote.  Hispanics make up 25% of the state population and with 29 electoral votes, Florida is usually considered essential to winning the White House.

What's not clear, however, is how Puerto Ricans will vote.  "I think it's interesting that a lot of them are saying that they're going to be more independent voters which is a little different than I think everybody thought," said Velazquez.

Still, Donald Trump clearly has an uphill challenge in this battleground region.  With his inflammatory rhetoric on immigration, many Latinos are looking for an apology or at least a more concerted outreach effort.  

50-50 on Social Issues 

Wilbur and Jackeline Rodriguez may represent what many recently arrived Puerto Ricans are thinking. They relocated from the island to Florida in the last year, have registered to vote but are unsure of who they will vote for.  

They lean conservative, especially on issues like abortion, but they're concerned about Trump's language on immigration.  

"There are a few things that I'm not pleased about with him like the manner in which he treats Hispanics—so I'm still figuring out what decision I will make,"Jackeline told CBN News.

Rev. Gabriel Salguero is president of the National Latino Evangelical Coalition and welcomes Puerto Rican arrivals every week as pastor at Iglesia El Calvario in Orlando. 

He says Puerto Ricans will likely turn out to vote for a number of issues including the Supreme Court vacancy and immigration.  But he too says it's unclear how they will vote. 

 "Puerto Rican evangelicals tend to be socially conservative," said Salguero, "but they tend to be, using political terms, much more progressive on issues of immigration, on the Puerto Rican economy and on issues of international aid."

More than a third of Hispanics in Florida are registered as independents. It's one more reason why both sides are investing early in this must-win state.