Recession Obsession: When Is a Downturn Coming, and What Can Trump Do to Fight It?

With speculation that a recession is on the horizon, President Trump maintains the economy is strong, but the White House itself seems to be acknowledging the possibility of a downturn.

A new survey shows economists see a recession coming, but not now.

A Politico report says White House Chief of Staff Mick Mulvaney told Trump supporters at a weekend fundraiser that if a recession is coming, it will be "moderate and short."

In a sign the White House is concerned, officials are reportedly looking at a range of tax cuts, from the corporate tax rate, to capital gains, to a payroll tax cut.

"Payroll tax is something that we think about, and a lot of people would like to see that," Trump said, "That very much affects the workers of our country. And we have a lot of workers."

A majority of economists believe a slowdown is coming, they just can't agree on when.

Ken Simonson, an analyst with the National Association for Business Economics, said, "I don't think we're in a recession, I don't think we're close to recession, but I do think the economy is slowing down. And personally I think the trade policy is damaging both the US directly and a lot of expectations about where the world economy and the US economy are headed."

Even President Trump seems to acknowledge the possibility of recession, saying if his trade war with China causes a short term pain, it's for long term gain, and that somebody had to have the guts to do it.

"Whether it's good for our country or bad for our country short term, long term, it's imperative that somebody does this," Trump told reporters. "I am doing this whether it's good or bad. For your statement about, 'Oh will we fall into a recession for two months,' okay? The fact is, somebody had to take China on. And the smart people say, 'Thank you very much,' and the dumb people have no idea."

In the age of a globally interconnected economy, what happens overseas matters a lot to the US economy. And Europe's economic problems continue to mount.

Italy's government collapsed Tuesday, and some believe there is a chance that a right-wing, Trump-loving, EU-hating populist named Matteo Salvini could be the next prime minister at a time when Italy is economically fragile.

Economic powerhouse Germany is facing a recession. And in London, Boris Johnson again pledged that Britain is leaving the EU by the end of October, no matter what.  

The British media, most of which oppose Brexit, has been cooking up all kinds of economic nightmare scenarios. But it's not at all clear just how chaotic Brexit might be.