Will China Change Its One Child Policy?

Few policies have received as much criticism as China's one child policy, and now this nearly 30-year-old legislation might be getting a face-lift. 

Last week at the annual China People's Political Consultative Congress (CPPCC), Zhao Baige, told reporters that she would like to see "incremental change" with regards to the policy. 

While Zhao and other officials recognize the need to re-evaluate this policy, it's doubtful that dramatic changes will take place in the near future.  On Sunday,  Wu Jiamen, the CPPCC spokesman reiterated the sentiment that the policy could undergo changes, but also commented on the policy's success. 

Wu told reporters the policy "was the only choice we had given the conditions when we initiated the policy," but as China's development increases, "there might be some changes to the policy and relevant departments are considering this."

Nearly 400 million births have been prevented since the policy took effect in 1979, and the number of these has been disproportionately female.  Although officials believe that the policy has helped spur China's development, the full impact of the decision has yet to be realized.

Within the next few years, an estimated 30 million men will be known as "bare branches," due to their unability to find enough single females.  The growing number of elderly citizens without a similarly robust number of workers could also prevent a future problem.  Even now, the current birth rate in China is only about 1.8, which falls below the 2.1 necessary to replenish a population.

While minorities and many rural residents are able to have more than one child legally, many wealthy urbanites are ignoring the policy and paying the fines associated with multiple children.  For those desiring large families, but are unable to pay the fines, forced abortions even up to the ninth month of pregnancy still occur in some areas. 

The upcoming Olympic fervor and international spotlight will probably shine a bright light onto this and other social problems within China, and while we can probably expect small policy changes, it's highly unlikely that the Chinese government will be able to quench the international thirst for change.