All That's Left is the Counting

02-05-2008

Paul Strand, CBN News Senior Washington Correspondent guest blogs for The Brody File:

Sometimes it seems John McCain's real constituency is the mainstream media. Those reporters can't get enough of the guy. They look at his two-to-one leads over Mitt Romney in many state polls and say it's proof-positive he's going to be the Republican nominee, while expressing all sorts of doubt that Hillary Clinton's double-digit leads of just a few days ago meant she'd beat Barack Obama for sure.

At this minute, the "accepted wisdom" is that the only decision for Romney and Mike Huckabee is when they're going to announce their candidacies offically dead.

But in that whole other world of the alternate media, there's a full-scale war by conservatives against McCain. The Limbaugh/Hannity/Ingraham wing of politics spends hours blasting away at him everyday on their monsterously popular radio shows. And today they were joined by one of the biggest voices in the conservative Christian world, James Dobson. He said he won't even vote if it means voting for McCain.

The "accepted wisdom" is this is too little too late. If all these voices had united around Romney weeks ago, he might be in a much stronger position right now. But who could have seen that as the only choice in a world where Fred Thompson and Rudy Giuliani were still alive and kicking, and Mike Huckabee was coming on like storm-busters?

But maybe all the voters will suddenly listen to their beloved radio-conservatives and lift Romney phoenix-like from the grave to which the mainstream media's already consigned him.

Sitting here at McCain headquarters in Phoenix, Arizona, though, it's hard to believe McCain isn't about to to get a very strong foot up on the nomination tonight.

And the next few contests after this look good for him. Kansas caucuses Saturday. It's the home of conservative Sam Brownback, but also moderate Bob Dole and usually trends moderate. Washington state also caucuses that day, and that's a state of fierce libertarians and independents who are as likely to embrace McCain more than just about any other citizens in the whole country. Then comes Maryland, Virginia and Washington D.C. next Tuesday in what some are dubbing "the Potomac Primary." All look good for McCain.

But there are looming troubles as well. McCain admits his strong suit is not the economy. And that's listed as the number one concern among voters exiting the polls today (and most everybody else in the country as well). That's one of Romney's best weapons with which to bash McCain. And he's using it hourly. Then, if McCain ends up facing Clinton or Obama, he faces this Catch-22. If he keeps defending the Bush tax cuts, they'll tar him as defending the "failed policy of Bush." If he flips away from defending those tax cuts, he'll look like the worst kind of panderer and flip-flopper. And maybe as a politician who really doesn't have a strong plan to rescue the economy. Indeed, a man who's strong suit is not the economy.

Another problem: today showed many more young people voting Democrat than Republican. That's the future. Can McCain turn it around?

And just overall, many more folks altogether are voting Democrat. If Obama ends up as the Democrat nominee, those people will likely continue to show up come November. The trends so far show many more of them will vote Obama rather than McCain. If the Arizona senator has already turned off enough conservatives to keep them from showing up at the polls, and if the independents who've raised him to victory so often in the past go Democrat, how can he win the White House?

If the voters follow the "accepted wisdom" and all but secure the nomination for McCain tonight and in the upcoming few days, these will be remembered as sweet, sweet days for him. But then he may well face the fight of his life.

Tonight we'll see if the voters deliver yet another stunning blow to the media and punditocracy, and whether the "accepted wisdom" turns out to be accepted by the voters, or indeed be wise!

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