Here Comes South Carolina, Where Campaigns Get Downright Nasty

GREENVILLE, S.C. -- New Hampshire and Iowa were winnowing grounds for the little guys, but now the big-name candidates for president are engaged in electoral hand-to-hand combat.

That's because South Carolina often sets the stage for how the rest of the campaign shapes up.

Republican analyst Julianne Thompson and Democratic strategist Stefan Turkheimer don't agree on much, but they do agree on this: South Carolina is where campaigns get nasty.

"If people were attacking Donald Trump six months ago, they'd be hurting themselves as well as Donald Trump," Turkheimer told CBN News.

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"But as you get fewer and fewer candidates, it benefits them more to attack," he said. "And South Carolina's always been the part where enough people drop out that you can start attacking. So that's really what's going on in South Carolina."

Thompson points out New Hampshire was mostly secular, mostly white and pretty mild.

"And then you go down to South Carolina, which is the South, which is far more evangelical, which has a lot greater diversity, and also politics start to get a lot nastier as you get into South Carolina, a lot more volatile," she said.

"It's absolutely a whole game change," Turkheimer said. "The Democratic primary is completely different demographically than New Hampshire and Iowa.  It's much more African-American. The change in income is huge It's a real change."

"And it's actually the first real primary because it's also fought through robo-calls and on the air in a way that New Hampshire and Iowa aren'tm"

When close to 55 percent of South Carolina voters are black and Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton's is expected to have them mostly on her side, that would seem to settle the Democrats' race. Thing is, it might not be that simple. Bernie Sanders is pushing hard for their votes.

"If Bernie's able to start taking African-American voters and if he can start getting Hispanic voters, because Texas is huge in Hispanic voters, then this is going to be a lot closer," Turkheimer said of the Democratic race.

And what if black voters just don't show for Clinton or Sanders? Black voters headed to the polls in droves in 2008 to support President Barack Obama. But their excitement this time around seems lukewarm at best.

Meanwhile, the kids are just crazy for Bernie and his talk of revolution.

"The only thing that Hillary Clinton is promising in incrementalism, and that's just not that attractive," Turkheimer stated.

"But when you're talking about revolution - you're going to throw out the system of 'big money' and billionaires, that's something that young people, who are mostly unemployed graduate students can really get behind," he said.

Thompson said if only they knew the real world of jobs and taxes.

"Versus looking through the rose-colored glasses of college and indoctrination of college professors, I think they're going to change their mind on socialism," she said.

As for the GOP primary race, Democrat Turkheimer enjoys the possibilities because he thinks it's good for his party, but not the Republicans.

"Oh, it's a clown car. And it's absolutely enjoyable until you start thinking that one of them's actually going to be the nominee," he said with a wry smile.

"You look at Ted Cruz and Donald Trump and this sort of race to the bottom on their side, and it doesn't really say great things in my mind about America, but it should say good things about our chances in the General Election," he said.

But Thompson, a former Tea Party official, understands what's driving voter support for the political outsiders this year.

"I understand that anger. It's a righteous anger," she said. "Because it's based on the fact that people are sick and tired of the campaign bait-and-switch. They're tired of politicians who campaign one way and govern another."

"And that whole idea of insurgency is not something that's exclusive to the Republican Party. You're seeing that in the Democratic Party as well," she explained.

Trump and Cruz continue leading the polls, but Turkheimer is keeping a wary eye on Sen. Marco Rubio.

"Rubio is actually the Republicans' most scary candidate for Democrats," he admitted. "He's the one who's most on point, most on message - sometimes a bit too much on message - and he's the one who can really capture the youth vote."

"Especially if he's going up against someone like Hillary. He is the person I'm most concerned about and he's the one I'd like to see drop out next," he said.

Both Rubio and Cruz are Hispanics in their mid-40s. Trump's a business tycoon. Ben Carson is a black surgeon -- all of which led Thompson to say, "If you are talking about the same old status quo, elderly, white candidates, that's over on the Democratic side. If you want youth and diversity, take a look at the Republicans."

Meanwhile, Turkheimer can hardly believe when it comes to Trump, voters don't wake up and smell the implausibility.

"There is something that actually happens with politicians - yes they want to say what people want to hear - but they also in the back of their head think, 'Can I govern based on this?' And he doesn't have to worry about that at all," Turkheimer said of Trump.

"He doesn't even care. He's just like, 'Well, I'm gonna build a wall. Oh, you don't think I will? It's gonna be the greatest wall of all time!'" he said.

Thompson believe Republicans in South Carolina and beyond will vote for an outsider like Trump because they're so sick of the moderates sold to them, like John McCain in 2008.

"And then they told us again in 2012 that we needed a more centrist candidate, that Newt Gingrich couldn't win in their opinion, and we got Mitt Romney," she said.

"And we saw how both of those things worked out. One of the definitions of insanity is repeating the same behavior over and over and expecting a different result," she said. "To win an election, you don't run away from conservatism. You message it. You sell it."