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Blue Wave or Blue Bust? The Key Senate Races and the Reason Democrats May Actually Lose Seats

10-15-2018
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It's election time and CBN News political analyst John Waage has been crunching the poll numbers to take a closer look at the key Senate races up for grabs.

Democrats and their allies in the liberal media have been predicting a so-called "blue wave" that is supposed to give Democrats control of the House and Senate. But how likely is that?

Dems need to win two seats to take control of the Senate, but they're facing an uphill battle because they need to hold on to six states where they're facing tough challenges from Republicans.

And some of the polls show there may be voter backlash against the way Democrats treated Brett Kavanaugh during his Supreme Court confirmation battle.

"The whole fight over Kavanaugh, due process issues, and innocent until proven guilty, have made a difference in the polls," Waage says.

In North Dakota, Democrats could lose a seat because incumbent Sen. Heidi Heitkamp (D), who voted against Kavanaugh, is down double digits against challenger Kevin Cramer (R).

In Missouri, Josh Hawley (R) has been targeting the Kavanaugh treatment, and he's giving incumbent Sen. Claire McCaskill (D) a tough fight.

In Montana, Sen. Jon Tester (D) is the incumbent facing Matt Rosendale (R) and that race is nearly a dead heat.

In Indiana, Sen. Joe Donnelly (D) is ahead by a slim margin against Mike Braun (R). But there's a libertarian candidate in that race, so that could affect the outcome. Click here to read about the Indiana candidates' views on gay marriage, abortion, and religious freedom.

In West Virginia, incumbent Sen. Joe Manchin (D) voted for Kavanaugh, and he's holding onto the lead there in the aftermath of that vote.

The Republicans are defending seats in Arizona and Tennessee where Sen. Jeff Flake and Sen. Bob Corker are retiring from their seats.

In Tennessee, Marsha Blackburn (R) now has a 14 point edge against Phil Bredesen (D) in the latest New York Times poll, even after pop singer Taylor Swift came out against Blackburn.

In Arizona, Martha McSally (R) is facing Kyrsten Sinema (D) and has pulled up to a tie or is even a little ahead.

In Texas, Sen. Ted Cruz (R) has increased his margin over Beto O'Rourke (D). But Democrats have pumped millions of dollars into that fight, and O'Rourke has much more campaign funding that Cruz.

Democrats are also hoping to take away the Republican-held seat in Nevada, where Jacky Rosen (D) is facing incumbent Sen. Dean Heller (R), but Heller has a slight lead in recent polls there.

Waage says, based on the polls right now, Republicans would gain two Senate seats if the election happened today.

The possibility of a House takeover is much more possible for Democrats than a Senate takeover, but it's all going to come down to the same issue it always comes down to: voter turnout.

Waage believes that even if Democrats win control of the House it will be by a very slim margin. "Both bases are mobilized," he says. "Republicans weren't before the Kavanaugh hearings," but they are now.

 

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