Atlantic May Soon Generate Two More Tropical Storms

After another brief lull in tropical activity in the wake of Kyle and Josephine, the Atlantic is poised to yield one and possibly two more tropical systems prior to the end of this week. Forecasters are concerned that both could pose threats to land, including in the United States.

A budding disturbance, located in the middle of the equatorial Atlantic has a 90% likelihood of becoming a tropical depression prior to the end of this week.

"This feature is over warm water and is in a zone of moist air with low wind shear and could be dubbed a tropical depression on Wednesday or Thursday," AccuWeather's top hurricane expert Dan Kottlowski said.

The central Atlantic system will be guided along a west-northwest path by steering winds around the Bermuda-Azores high-pressure system during the next several days.

"Once reaching tropical depression status, ongoing conditions should allow for additional strengthening into a tropical storm," Kottlowski said.

"Laura" Will Be The Name of the Next Tropical Storm

The next name on the list of tropical storms for the 2020 Atlantic season is Laura. Should Laura form in the next few days, it would shatter the early-season formation record for the "L-named" storm set by Luis on Aug. 29, 1995.

The 2020 Atlantic season has already set early-season formation records with Cristobal, as well as every letter from Edouard through Kyle.

"We expect the system to be near the Leeward Islands sometime on Friday or Saturday as a strong tropical storm," Kottlowski said.

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Later this weekend to early next week, this same feature is likely to take a path near or just north of the northern islands of the Caribbean. How close the storm tracks to these islands, especially Puerto Rico and Hispaniola, may not only determine impacts in terms of flooding and wind, but also the overall intensity of the storm.

If the storm tracks right over the large mountainous islands, the storm could weaken, as opposed to a storm that moves just to the north which would allow its core to remain over warm waters. In the latter scenario, the storm could maintain its strength.

During the middle to the latter part of next week, the strength of the Bermuda-Azores high and a southward dip in the jet stream will tend to determine the storm's track. Should the high weaken, it may allow the storm to curve northward over the Bahamas and perhaps east of the Atlantic coast of the U.S.

Should the high stay strong, the dip in the jet stream over the South Central states might draw the storm toward the Gulf Coast of the U.S.

Even though meteorologists say it's too early to be confident on an exact track of the storm this far out, Kottlowski cautioned that "a track into the Gulf of Mexico is a significant possibility at this point."

Second Area of Concern

Forecasters were also monitoring the second area of concern, a disturbance moving westward over the Caribbean Sea.

"This system is not as well organized as the feature over the central Atlantic and is currently moving too fast for quick development," Kottlowski stated.

As the system approaches Central America, it may slow down enough over warm waters and lower wind shear to develop later this week.

The next name of the list for tropical storms for the basin in 2020 after Laura is Marco. The current early-season record holder for "M-named" storm is Maria from the notorious 2005 hurricane season that brought the blockbuster storms Emily, Katrina, and Wilma.

Should the Caribbean feature remain poorly organized as it reaches the western part of the sea, it may be more likely to be drawn on a more west-northwest path through Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, rather than a path that takes the storm between the Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba.

The dip in the jet stream that is forecast to extend into the Gulf of Mexico would produce increasing wind shear and act as a deterrent against rapid strengthening. However, the jet stream dip could also tend to pull the system and its torrential downpours and gusty thunderstorms farther to the north and perhaps into the Gulf Coast of the U.S. Should the jet stream dip retreat northward even slightly, it might allow the Caribbean system to plow more to the west and perhaps into Texas or northeastern Mexico later this weekend to early next week.

Showers and Thunderstorms for Southern US

This part of the southern U.S. will be subject to repeating showers and thunderstorms over the balance of this week and this weekend. So, a saturated ground would be more prone to flooding, should the Caribbean system, the Atlantic system or both come calling.

As a result of both tropical threats, all interests from the Caribbean to the Bahamas, Honduras, Belize, Mexico and the southern and eastern U.S. should monitor tropical activity currently over the Atlantic basin.

The lid could soon come off the Atlantic basin with the potential for multiple named systems spinning at the same time, including multiple threats to lives and property at the same time from the Caribbean to North America.

Tropical storms are named for most letters of the alphabet, with the exception of Q, U, X, Y, and Z. The infamous 2005 Atlantic hurricane season holds the record for the greatest number of named storms at 28 and still holds the record for early-season formation records for the "K-storm," which was Katrina on Aug. 24, as well as the letters M through T, V, and W. After W, Greek letters are used. 2005 was the only year to use Greek letters.

AccuWeather meteorologists are expecting a hyperactive year for tropical storms and hurricanes -- enough that Greek letters may once again be needed. Due to 2020's record pace and upcoming conditions expected in the basin, AccuWeather meteorologists upped their forecast for the number of tropical storms in late July, with up to 24 now predicted and up to 11 hurricanes projected for the season.

The climatological peak for the Atlantic hurricane season is around Sept. 10.

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