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Historically Accurate Election Model Predicts 2020 Result of Trump vs. Biden

07-09-2020
Donald Trump and Joe Biden

President Trump is all but certain to be re-elected, according to a political science professor who has developed an accurate presidential election prediction model.

Stony Brook University Prof. Helmut Norpoth revealed the result to the website Mediaite

Norpoth's model predicted Trump would win in 2016, even when the polls seemed to indicate the opposite.

The university reported back in 2016, "Based on his analysis of primary voting, Norpoth gave Trump an 87%-99% chance of beating Hillary Clinton nearly one year ago. He stuck by his model in press interviews despite an overwhelming consensus of pollsters and pundits promising a Clinton victory."

His model would have correctly predicted 25 of the last 27 elections, and it says President Trump has a 91 percent chance of being reelected.

The model also indicates the president could win a bigger majority in the Electoral College this time than he did in 2016.

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The professor said his model emphasizes how much enthusiasm candidates generate early in the nominating process, discounting the opinion polls.

So far, polls have shown Biden leading over Trump. But the professor pointed out that many candidates have led in the polls in the spring but lost in the fall. 

"The terrain of presidential contests is littered with nominees who saw a poll lead in the spring turn to dust in the fall," Norpoth said.

There's still a long way to go before Election Day, and polls can change a lot, especially after the candidates hold their nominating conventions and presidential debates.

And while the Biden camp has said he will engage in three debates with Trump, critics are wondering if they'll really allow that to happen, pointing to numerous gaffes that they say raise questions about his mental abilities, including this latest clip:

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