Analysts Say Midterm Election Momentum Has Shifted: 'Half of Independents Say Trump Is a Major Factor'

WASHINGTON, DC - Just weeks ago, political analysts were predicting Republicans could win as many as 35 House seats in November, but now they're projecting closer to 10 to 20. Even GOP leaders are now saying Democrats might keep control of the Senate.

"There's probably a greater likelihood the House flips than the Senate," said Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY).  

While GOP anger over the FBI raid of former President Trump's home has energized his supporters, Republicans want the media focused on President Biden's policies and economy, not Trump's handling of classified documents. 

"He should have turned them over and apparently had turned a number of documents over," Sen. Roy Blunt (R-MO) told ABC News' This Week. "What I'm wondering about is why this could go on for almost two years and less than 100 days before the election suddenly we're talking about this rather the economy or inflation or even the student loan program." 

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After Facebook's Mark Zuckerberg revealed the social media giant limited the Hunter Biden laptop story due to an FBI warning, Trump took to his Truth Social platform repeating claims of "massive fraud and election interference" and calling for a new 2020 presidential election.   

Political strategists question if Trump's return to the spotlight is causing the GOP to lose momentum.  

Republicans need to understand that while Trump motivates a significant segment of the GOP base, he motivates ALL of the Democrats' base, and a large portion of independents who might otherwise vote GOP. https://t.co/0sZjC8UBSQ

— Brit Hume (@brithume) August 29, 2022

"There is a reason Democrats are eager to keep Trump at the center of the conversation: half of independents say Trump is a major factor in their vote, and they're breaking 4-1 for the Democrats. Republicans shouldn't play that game. If they do, they're cruising for a bruising," tweeted Ben Shapiro.

"He is making himself a part of this elections," Nathan Gonzales, editor and publisher of Inside Elections, told CBN News. "Maybe voters don't like the job President Biden is doing, but they're being reminded of things they didn't like about President Trump when he was in office and that creates a murkier playing field and makes it more difficult for Republicans to make gains in the House and the Senate." 

Still, Gonzales says Republicans don't even need a wave to win back the House and Senate. 

"Democratic majorities are so narrow, Republicans only need a net gain of one seat in the Senate and they only need a net gain of four seats in the House, so they don't need this seismic political wave in order to get to the majorities," said Gonzales.  

President Biden will kick off a stretch of midterm campaign events in Philadelphia on Thursday with a primetime address on the continued battle for the soul of the nation, calling on voters to vote Democratic in November.