In the blame game over who started the Georgian-Russian war, much remains unclear. On the surface, Georgia's government seems to have tragically miscalculated in its move against South Ossetia, playing perfectly into Russian hands, like an overly confident chess novice suddenly trapped by a grand master.
It's looking as if Georgia was set up. There is evidence and precedent to suspect that Russia lured Georgia into this war, which the Kremlin has obviously planned and prepared for. Russia's longstanding modus operandi has been to plan and orchestrate elaborate pretexts to "justify" its wars of aggression.
This is promised Russian payback to the West, not only for Boris Yeltsin's humiliation in Kosovo in 1999, but also for the missile defense shield we've recently decided to erect in Eastern Europe, right on Russia's doorstep.
Most worrisome for the West is that now, like a big dog proud of having killed and eaten a June bug, Russia will think that this lop-sided contest proves that it is a formidable military power again.
This war proves no such thing.
But throughout its history, Russia has tended to get puffed up after conquests against weak opponents, in what the Russians have dubbed "short, glorious wars." Seduced by the historic belief that Russia is destined to rule its neighbors, the Kremlin may now go for more, somewhere else.
The Russian bully had been suffering from a complex after getting bloodied in Chechnya and Afghanistan. And the world, especially Russia's neighbors, benefited from it. But the bully has shed that complex and is on the prowl again, looking for weaklings to pick on.
This war shows that Russia has not fundamentally changed. The bully is back.