The well respected Barna Group has an exhaustive poll out on faith voters and the 2008 presidential election. I'm sure the Obama and McCain camps will both spin this to their advantage but get The Brody File analysis below. But first read parts of the Barna poll below:
For the most part, the various faith communities of the U.S. currently support Sen. Obama for the presidency. Among the 19 faith segments that The Barna Group tracks, evangelicals were the only segment to throw its support to Sen. McCain. Among the larger faith niches to support Sen. Obama are non-evangelical born again Christians (43% to 31%); notional Christians (44% to 28%); people aligned with faiths other than Christianity (56% to 24%); atheists and agnostics (55% to 17%); Catholics (39% vs. 29%); and Protestants (43% to 34%). In fact, if the current preferences stand pat, this would mark the first time in more than two decades that the born again vote has swung toward the Democratic candidate.
However, while there has been little movement since the beginning of June among most voting segments (such as ethnic groups, age groups, or geographic slices), there has been substantial churn among religious segments. During the past two months, Sen. Obama's lead has eroded substantially among non-evangelical born again Christians (a decline of nine points); active Christians (a 20-point drop); Protestants (down 13 points); and Catholics (down 11 points).
While some Christian voters seem to be questioning their early support for Obama, the McCain candidacy does not seem to be gaining momentum among evangelicals. Since June, the current level of support Sen. McCain has among evangelical voters has declined significantly (dropping from 78% to 61%).
One of the most frequently reported on groups of voters is evangelicals. Most media polls use a simplistic approach to defining evangelicals, asking survey respondents if they consider themselves to be evangelical. Barna Group surveys, on the other hand, ask a series of nine questions about a person's religious beliefs in order to determine if they are an evangelical. The differences between the two approaches are staggering.
Using the common approach of allowing people to self-identify as evangelicals, 40% of adults classify themselves as such. Among them, 83% are likely to vote in November. Among the self-reported evangelicals who are likely to vote, John McCain holds a narrow 39% to 37% lead over Sen. Obama. Nearly one-quarter of this segment (23%) is still undecided about who they will vote for.
Using the Barna approach of studying people's core religious beliefs produces a very different outcome. Just 8% of the adult population qualifies as evangelical based on their answers to the nine belief questions. Among that segment, a significantly higher proportion (90%) is likely to vote in November, and Sen. McCain holds a huge lead (61%-17%) over the Democratic nominee. Overall, just 14% of this group remains undecided regarding their candidate of choice.
George Barna, who has managed various political campaigns and been involved in polling for many candidates, directed the study. He believes the faith community may yet emerge as the deciding factor in what many analysts consider to be a certain victory for Barack Obama.
"It is unusual to see such significant movement within the core segments of the Christian community," he explained. "While there is still a decided preference for Senator Obama, the more conservative element of the Christian population is slowly coming to grips with what an Obama presidency might be like. As the finer points of a wide range of issues are clarified by each nominee, the initial excitement about Senator Obama has lost some luster to an increasing number of people whose vote is influenced by their spiritual perspectives. If Sen. McCain converts such apprehensions into votes, this will be a closer race than many have anticipated."
Read more here.
Also read how Barna identifies Born Again Christians here and how they identify Evangelicals here.
As it relates to Senator McCain, the key line comes from George Barna above when he says, "Senator Obama has lost some luster to an increasing number of people whose vote is influenced by their spiritual perspectives. If Sen. McCain converts such apprehensions into votes, this will be a closer race than many have anticipated."
The Brody File couldn't agree more. The McCain campaign CAN NOT be satisfied with thinking Evangelicals and conservative faith voters will vote for McCain as long as they thoroughly demonize Obama. It won't work. Evangelical leaders and grassroots activists continue to tell The Brody File that McCain needs to start incorporating faith and values talk into his speeches and town halls. He also needs to find new and creative ways to reach out to an Evangelical community who is still not fully committed to McCain. After all, look at this line from the Barna research:
While some Christian voters seem to be questioning their early support for Obama, the McCain candidacy does not seem to be gaining momentum among evangelicals. Since June, the current level of support Sen. McCain has among evangelical voters has declined significantly (dropping from 78% to 61%).
So yes McCain leads 61%-17% among Evangelical Christians but the drop from 78% should be a red flag. If John McCain wants to win the presidency he needs a fully mobilized energized Evangelical base behind him. The Brody File has extended an invitation numerous times for John McCain to sit down one on one about faith related topics.
As for Obama, clearly all his faith talk is resonating and paying off. The poll shows that within diversified faith communities his broader social justice gospel issues seem to be a nice fit. Heck, he's even leading among non-Evangelical Born Again Christians. There is some cause for concern. Read the following line below from Barna:
However, while there has been little movement since the beginning of June among most voting segments (such as ethnic groups, age groups, or geographic slices), there has been substantial churn among religious segments. During the past two months, Sen. Obama's lead has eroded substantially among non-evangelical born again Christians (a decline of nine points); active Christians (a 20-point drop); Protestants (down 13 points); and Catholics (down 11 points).
My guess is that Jeremiah Wright has been a factor here and the trickle of information on Obama when it comes to his position on abortion, marriage, etc. The thinking here within Republican circles is that once conservative faith voters find out more about Obama's liberal record on social issues the undecided voters will jump to McCain. And there is still a lot of unexplored territory. Yet Obama is going into Republican conservative territory with the pseudo message of "I don't have horns" and so you have to question whether demonizing Obama is really going to work. The energy here may be better spent on having John McCain himself go around in public promoting faithfully (excuse the pun) his bond on faith issues with Evangelicals. He needs them. That 61% figure needs to increase. The McCain campaign is working behind the scenes to get that number up but it's the "in front of the curtain McCain" that Evangelicals are waiting to take center stage.