Obama and Hamas: A Powder Keg waiting to Explode

01-09-2009

According to the Guardian newspaper, it looks like Barack Obama may be willing to have some folks on his team have discussions with Hamas. Oy-vey.

Get my take below but first read more here and see below from the Guardian:

The incoming Obama administration is prepared to abandon George Bush's ­doctrine of isolating Hamas by establishing a channel to the Islamist organisation, sources close to the transition team say.

The move to open contacts with Hamas, which could be initiated through the US intelligence services, would represent a definitive break with the Bush ­presidency's ostracising of the group. The state department has designated Hamas a terrorist organisation, and in 2006 ­Congress passed a law banning US financial aid to the group.

The Guardian has spoken to three ­people with knowledge of the discussions in the Obama camp. There is no talk of Obama approving direct diplomatic negotiations with Hamas early on, but he is being urged by advisers to initiate low-level or clandestine approaches, and there is growing recognition in Washington that the policy of ostracizing Hamas is counter-productive. A tested course would be to start ­contacts through Hamas and the US intelligence services, similar to the secret process through which the US engaged with the PLO in the 1970s. Israel did not become aware of the contacts until much later.

First of all, this shouldn’t be shocking to anyone. Let me refresh your memory by bringing back this statement from Obama’s campaign on Iran:

"Barack Obama has always said that he is willing to meet with appropriate Iranian leaders at the appropriate time after due preparation and advance work by US diplomats. That's what he said last summer, and that's what he's said throughout the campaign. Preparation is not a precondition it is absolutely necessary to the success of any diplomatic effort. You need to build an agenda and open lines of communication, just as we would do with any country, But Barack Obama believes we must be willing to lead, just like Kennedy did, and just like Reagan did. And that's what he will do as president."

If Obama does open up lines of communication with Hamas, he needs to be prepared to come under assault back home. Not only will the powerful pro-Israel lobbyist group AIPAC hammer him, this will also not go over well with the majority of American Jews AND Evangelical Christians. They are a solid block on this issue. You can also expect to see members of Congress from both parties raise serious objections. This is a powder keg waiting to blow.

The question Obama needs to ask himself is whether or not it is worth spending political capital on this. You have an economy in the tank and pressing domestic issues at home. The Obama team, for the most part, has been effective at keeping the focus on the economy. Any sign that Obama is willing to engage Hamas will weaken him at home. He’s already taking flack from his own party on the stimulus bill. The last thing he needs politically is to be seen as in any way sympathetic towards the Hamas viewpoint.

The other part of the problem here for Obama is that this is a very emotional issue for many ordinary Americans and politicians in this country. Anytime you bring emotion into the equation, you run the risk of bad blood and alienating key constituencies. This has all the makings of one huge problem for Obama.

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