What's at Stake Tonight in SC Debate

01-21-2008

Hillary Clinton trails by about 8-10 points down here in South Carolina. If she's going to make a move, tonight's debate in Myrtle Beach is a great opportunity. There's some great analysis in The Greenville News this morning. Check it out below to see what each candidate must do to be effective and win votes:

(Pollster Scott) Rasmussen wrote that "what is clear is that Obama is increasing his support among African-American voters who make up roughly half of Democratic primary voters in South Carolina," holding a 44-point lead among them going into the final week before the primary. Clinton led 42-20 among whites, according to the Rasmussen Reports poll.

Bruce Ransom of Clemson University's Strom Thurmond Institute said the struggle between the former first lady and the Senate's only black member "is significant and has implications for other states with a sizable African-American electorate."

Ransom said that "both camps are engaged in a furious battle in South Carolina to make a successful bid for those votes. Quite frankly, this is a battle among heretofore political allies and friends who both need the same constituency -- black votes -- to win the South Carolina Democratic presidential primary."

Ransom said that in his debate responses, Obama must take care not to undercut the biracial nature of his campaign by, in pursuing black votes, appearing to be abandoning it.

There's plenty of fodder for sharp exchanges, if the candidates take off the gloves.

Ransom expects Obama to be pushed by Clinton to move beyond generalities such as his broad themes of change and hope, and put more meat on his policy proposals, while Clinton hammers away about her experience and ability to bring policy change to Washington.

Don Fowler of Columbia, who was President Bill Clinton's Democratic national chairman and is supporting Clinton, said that in the debate and the remaining days until Saturday's primary, she would focus on her readiness for the job and an economic program tailored for states like South Carolina where unemployment is moving steadily upward.

"It's designed to treat exactly the kind of problems we have in South Carolina of joblessness and economic hardship," he said.

Clinton's plan is "more detailed and more aggressive than any of the other candidates. She has to sell it, and I think she will sell it," Fowler said.

U.S. Rep. Jim Clyburn, D-Columbia, the House majority whip and institute board member who is neutral in the race, said Clinton "has to connect with people on a personal level; that needs to come through."

Obama, who has faced questions about his lack of experience, may have a more complex situation, Clyburn suggested.

"He has to be presidential, demonstrate that he's a strong leader," Clyburn said. "And he has to be careful not to be too soft, but not to harden up."

Asked if that might not be at odds with Obama's public persona, Clyburn said, "You can be firm and not be hard."

Greenville's Joe Erwin, an Obama supporter, said his candidate needs "a strong and convincing performance that reinforces everything he's talked about, staying on message and not being diverted from his brand, that is, change and his leadership abilities."

Beyond that, Erwin said Obama must guard against attacks and rhetorical curve balls.

"It's tempting to go off and attack back, but I just don't think that benefits Obama. It's not who he is."

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