Even though Republicans had big wins in New Jersey and Virginia, that doesn't necessarily translate into a referendum on President Obama. However, it actually has deeper significance. With the 2010 midterm elections about to suddenly creep up on all of us quickly, the Democratic Party is going to have to somehow figure a way to keep Independent voters from pulling the lever for Republicans. On Tuesday night, to put it simply it was a jail break. Independents went 58% to 33% for Christie over Corzine. In Virginia it was even a bigger beat down. McDonnell won Independents 65% to 34%. Democratic officials can spin and put out all the press releases they want citing how these races were local in nature but the message from Tuesday is that Independents seem to be leaning toward the GOP. That's bad news for the Democrats and could lead to a 2010 that feels a whole lot worse than Tuesday.
Look, there's no doubt that Christie and McDonnell ran great campaigns. There is a lesson in that. Republicans just can't put up any old candidate and expect to swing Independents their way. But if they put up conservative candidates who focus in on the problems of too much government and fiscal spending that winning combo is going to be powerful. The Obama White House believed they had a strong mandate for change when they took over in January and while that may be true, sometimes pushing too much of a big government agenda (bailout, GM takeover, Stimulus, healthcare reform, etc) and doing it pretty quickly can lead Independent voters to get a little wary and anxious over the ultimate end point. I'm not saying that Independents in New Jersey and Virginia were directly casting their votes based on this but what I am saying is that fiscal discipline and a big government agenda are a potentially toxic mix when you are dealing with Independent voters.
Also, Republicans should take note of McDonnell's strategy in Virginia. He courted Hispanics. He was not afraid to engage on the immigration issue and let's remember Hispanics are very family oriented which should be a natural play for Republicans. For that matter, Republicans need to figure out a way to truly appeal to African-Americans. They won't get a majority of the vote but they could sure do better than they are doing now.
In New Jersey, the Republican won even though Democrats vastly outnumber Republicans in the state. That's a hard pill for President Obama and this White House to swallow considering the President invested a good amount of time in the race. While Corzine's loss shouldn't be seen as a direct referendum on President Obama, it should be duly noted that the Presidents coattails aren't huge like they were a year ago.